Digital Team
Bangladesh’s interim government under Muhammad Yunus is encountering an unparalleled political crisis as opposition forces coalesce, international pressure intensifies and public disquiet mounts after the violent killing of the student leader Hadi. The combination of domestic unrest and diplomatic isolation has generated conditions that political observers say could allow former prime minister Sheikh Hasina to return to electoral politics.
Yunus Administration Under Siege
The interim government that came to power after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in August 2024 faces challenges on all fronts. Saliuddin Ahmed, the financial advisor for the country, admitted that Bangladesh has economic dependency on India, despite a lot of negative external and domestic rhetoric from radical groups in Bangladesh.
The killing of student activist Hadi has become a flashpoint. His brother, Usman Hadi, has publicly accused the Yunus administration of planning the killing for the purpose of delaying elections, warning that Yunus might face the same fate as his predecessor.
“The situation has deteriorated greatly over the past 24 hours,” said political analyst Dr. Farooq Hassan. “We’ve entered an era of multiple power centres openly challenging the legitimacy of the interim government.”
Power Is About to Get Aligned: Major Political Realignment
In a dramatic political turn, two major parties in Bangladesh — Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League and Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) — are seen as seeking to work together against suspected extremist groups who are undermining the country’s secularism, said Dubekha Zindi.
Some 14 smaller political parties are reported to offer to campaign against the upcoming February 12 elections in line with the Awami League according to reports showing widespread opposition to any delay. BNP head Tarique Rahman is expected to return to Dhaka on 26 December, and elaborate preparations have been begun in Old Dhaka to welcome him.
However, the political climate indicates a far cry from the political situation after August.
Judicial Independence Reasserted
The Supreme Court has become an important check on the interim government’s power. The new Chief Justice Zubair Rahman was also formally appointed as Chief Justice – he publicly rebuked the government lawyers seeking a faster judicial process to help Sheikh Hasina on his speedy trial, in an exercise of legal independence.
The court said it would only go forward after obtaining full defence arguments from Hasina’s lawyers, aggravating the administration’s apparent efforts to legally prevent her back.
International Pressure Mounts
Several US Congressional representatives have penned letters to Muhammad Yunus asking the government to stop the ban on the Awami League, Bangladesh’s largest political party. American legislators have sounded concerns over violations of minority rights.
The US State Department, according to news sources, might issue a statement on violence against Hindu minority groups and a nationwide political situation in general. The presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s office means it’s a top American concern.
“Foreign actors, particularly the US, are indicating they are not in favour of indefinite interim arrangements,” said foreign policy lawyer Ambassador (retd) Ashok Sharma.
India’s Strategic Response
New Delhi has responded with a mix of diplomacy and signalling to Bangladesh. India has added more military forces to the border while keeping channels for dialogue open.
The Indian government’s message has been clear: the attacks on minorities, anti-India operations, the prolonged political instability are unacceptable. India’s approach also uses trade and economic cooperation — critical to Bangladesh’s economy — as leverage points.
Student Movement Begins to Fragment
The student coalition that led to the protests of August is also starting to get divided. Nahid Islam — seen as close to Yunus — has publicly pronounced that Sheikh Hasina should be allowed to cast her ballot in elections, a stunning flip-flop from previous positions.
Several student leaders have reportedly sought protection from police following Hadi’s death, citing fears that school officials with a big stake in security for students’ livelihood may need one. However, this climate of insecurity has weakened what was one of the government’s main sources of support before the outbreak of violence.
Security Establishment Signals Unease
Sources in Bangladesh’s security apparatus indicate that there’s little enthusiasm for extending the interim settlement. Police, military and intelligence officials are said to be worried about the continuing instability and its effect on institution-building.
“The longer-lasting uncertainty remains, the bigger the danger for Bangladesh’s own democratic systems and its place in the region,” a senior military official told reporters on the condition of anonymity.
Economic Constraints Tighten
Bangladesh’s economy faces major headwinds. Saliuddin Ahmed’s reliance on India for trade highlights the constraints on the interim government’s policy choices.
Major imports — including agricultural products, pharmaceuticals and industrial inputs — come from India. Any disruption to these trade channels would immediately affect Bangladesh’s economy and daily life.
Election Timeline Under Scrutiny
February 12 has been identified as the election date, but questions about procedures, candidate eligibility and whether the interim government will transfer power as planned persist.
The combination of domestic opposition, external pressure and economic constraints has left many observers calling the situation “a mess,” putting the Yunus government in an unsustainable position.
“Bangladesh stands at a crossroad,” said Dr. Hassan. “Decisions taken in the upcoming weeks will shape whether the country heads toward democratic recovery or further instability.”
Minority Rights Remain a Flashpoint
Violence against Hindu minorities continues to draw international condemnation. Religious minority organizations have documented attacks, property destruction and intimidation since August.
The interim government has been criticised by human rights groups for failing to provide adequate protection, with demands growing for action instead of assurances.
Regional and Geopolitical Implications
The crisis has wider South Asian ramifications. Refugee flows, extremism concerns and economic integration all hinge on Bangladesh’s political trajectory.
India, as Bangladesh’s largest neighbour and trading partner, has special stakes in the outcome. China and Pakistan also have strategic interests in the country’s political fate.
What This Means for Bangladesh’s Future
This crisis is about more than a power struggle between factions. At stake is Bangladesh’s identity as a secular and democratic nation and its regional and global relationships.
Whether Sheikh Hasina returns to contest elections, whether the February 12 timetable holds, and whether political stability can be restored will shape South Asian geopolitics in 2025.
For Bangladesh’s 170 million people, the hope remains that the transition ends peacefully — and that democratic institutions emerge stronger rather than weakened.
FAQs
Q: What has caused the political crisis in Bangladesh currently?
A: The crisis stems from the killing of student leader Hadi, judicial pushback against the Yunus government, and rising international pressure to hold elections on schedule while protecting minority rights.
Q: Is it legal for Sheikh Hasina to return and seek electoral approval?
A: The Supreme Court has stated it will hear her defence arguments before concluding on legal cases, meaning her political future is not yet foreclosed.
Q: What is India’s posture on the Bangladesh crisis?
A: India has made clear it will not tolerate attacks on minorities, anti-India activities or prolonged instability, while using diplomacy and economic leverage.
Q: When are Bangladesh’s elections scheduled?
A: Elections are planned for February 12, 2025, though uncertainty remains over adherence to the timeline.
Q: What are international actors doing?
A: US lawmakers have urged lifting party bans and protecting minorities, with the State Department expected to issue statements on the situation.
Q: Why is Awami League–BNP cooperation significant?
A: Such cooperation would mark a major political shift and could isolate extremist forces that emerged after August.
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