Digital Team
After the high-stakes US military activity that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, India is preparing itself to take diplomatic risks and protect critical economic interests. New Delhi’s calibrated diplomatic postures hide a Venezuela crisis India oil dividend approximated at just over $1 billion (approx. ₹8,400 crore) in outstanding dues and rejuvenated energy interests.
MEA Begs US Involvement with Regime Change
India’s external affairs ministry, called MEA, has indicated it has “deep concern” about the changing situation in the city of Caracas. In a statement within hours of that US military occupation in Venezuela, India reaffirmed its support for the safety of the Venezuelan people and its desire to resolve the situation through dialogue.
“We are watching and responding closely. MEA statement: “India’s Embassy in Caracas still in close communication with the Indian community, will give all necessary support.”
According to analysts, the neutral tone serves a strategic goal reminiscent of the ‘wait and see’ approach of India’s de-hyphenated diplomacy, which stands ready to defend national interests irrespective of the current ruling regime in Caracas.
Freeing Frozen Assets from the Dividend of $1 Billion
India’s pragmatic diplomacy has been fueled by the huge financial ownership of state-run explorers. The India oil benefit is twofold Venezuela crisis:
- Recuperation of Dues: Dividends and payments tied to Venezuelan debts stuck in the cash hands of Indian oil majors, notably ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) due to US sanctions.
- Operational Revival: The joint venture, OVL, which operates the San Cristobal oil field, has experienced a sharp drop in production to 5,000–10,000 barrels a day. A transition to US-backed administration is expected to lift sanctions enabling OVL to return rigs and equipment to the region.
India’s Energy Companies Like ONGC Videsh Begin To Full Scale Operations In Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt.
Towards a New Strategic Shift: “Oil Must flow” Policy of Trump
US president Donald Trump after Nicolás Maduro’s capture signaled to the world that US interests were related to energy security. Trump said that the US would “manage Venezuela’s oil for as long as it needed to get the oil talking” before “the oil [gets flowing].”
Comparative Analysis of Global Energy Stakeholders
| Stakeholder | Previous Status | Projected Future Status |
| India (OVL) | Assets frozen; $1B in dues pending | Return of exports; repayment of debts. |
| United States | Restricted access; Sanctions applied | Direct influence on export/extraction. |
| China/Russia | Dominant investors through Maduro | Predicted exit or diminished influence. |
| Global Market | Highly volatile; severe crack down in crude oil supply | supply is expanding; price stabilization. |
In ousting the Maduro administration, US seek to break the Chinese, Russian and Iranian stranglehold in the Western Hemisphere. For India, though, it represents a transformation from high-risk compliance hurdles to less opaque but still Americaesque atmosphere.
India’s Energy Security and the Heavy Crude Factor
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves — more than 303 billion barrels. Heavy crude from Venezuela is very aligned with complex refinery configurations developed in Jamnagar and Vadinar which are convenient for Indian refiners.
- Diversity: By access to Venezuela, India’s overreliance on Middle East and Russian supplies is diminished.
- Refining Margins: Indian private refiners can historically thrive on discounted Venezuelan heavy crude.
- Infrastructure: Access to the San Cristobal oil field again enables India to benefit from its infrastructure instead of having to start from ground zero.
Analysis: Chanakya Neeti in the 21st Century
India’s reluctance to openly condemn the Trump regime change in Venezuela echoes its position in other global conflicts in which national interest supersedes ideological alignment. As an aside, in the UPA era, ideological proximity to Global South leaders often determined policy; the current administration continues to focus on “India First.” For if the US succeeds in installing a transitional government, India’s diplomacy neutrality at the start of the process means it will act as an option for whoever takes over in Caracas afterward.
What’s Next?
The Venezuela crisis India oil benefit is a master class in contemporary realpolitik. As the world argues over the legality of a U.S. military operation in Venezuela, New Delhi is looking ahead to a $1 billion roadmap and 1.4 billion people pursuing long-term energy security. In the months ahead, whether the “smash-and-grab” runs on the road to building stability or a long drawn out spell of regional instability will depend on all things, but for India the chance at renewing its energy footprint in Latin America is clearer than it has ever been.
FAQs
Q: How will capturing Nicolás Maduro affect India’s petrol prices?
A: With the lifting of sanctions and Venezuelan oil production returning to pre-crisis levels, global supply will rise, which could allow international crude prices to become softer, benefitting Indian consumers.
Q: What is India’s overall investment in Venezuela?
A: India has put hundreds of millions of dollars into the San Cristobal and Carabobo-1 projects, mainly through ONGC Videsh.
Q: Why is Venezuelan oil important for Indian refiners?
A: Venezuela produces large quantities of “heavy” and “sour” crude, and India has a number of the most advanced refineries in the world.
Q: Was India in favor of American military action?
A: No. India has been calling for “peaceful dialogue” and expressing its concern, staying neutral on the diplomatic front.
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