The diplomatic relations between India and Canada have reached an unprecedented low, marking a new chapter of geopolitical tension between two historically friendly nations. The root cause of the escalating conflict is the killing of Khalistan separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada and the subsequent accusations from the Canadian government, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, implicating India in the incident. The situation has intensified over the past year, with accusations of political maneuvering, extremism, and diplomatic provocations driving the two countries further apart.
India Recalls Diplomats, Downgrades Ties
In a dramatic move, India has recalled its High Commissioner to Canada, Sanjay Kumar Verma, along with several other diplomats, amid growing concerns for their safety. This action follows the Canadian government’s recent identification of Indian diplomats, including Verma, as “persons of interest” in an investigation linked to Nijjar’s killing. Although the specific details of the investigation remain undisclosed, it is widely believed to be connected to the June 2023 assassination of Nijjar, a prominent pro-Khalistan figure who was designated a terrorist by the Indian government.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a strong statement, accusing Canada of making “preposterous imputations” and pushing a political agenda that panders to extremist elements. The MEA’s concerns center on what it calls the Trudeau government’s “vote-bank politics,” referencing Trudeau’s ties to sections of the Sikh diaspora that support the Khalistan movement—a separatist agenda advocating for an independent Sikh state.
The Role of Khalistan Separatism
At the heart of the conflict is the issue of Khalistan separatism, which remains a highly sensitive subject in India, particularly in the northern state of Punjab. The movement gained prominence in the 1980s but has largely waned within India. However, it continues to find support among segments of the Sikh diaspora, particularly in Canada, the UK, and the United States. Canada, home to a significant Sikh population, has been accused by India of harboring and tolerating individuals and groups that promote separatist and extremist ideologies.
In 2023, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stunned New Delhi by accusing India of involvement in Nijjar’s murder, despite not providing any public evidence. The accusation, made in the Canadian Parliament, was met with immediate rejection by India, which deemed it “politically motivated” and part of Trudeau’s efforts to appease a domestic constituency sympathetic to the Khalistan cause.
Canada’s Allegations and India’s Response
The Trudeau government’s latest actions have only added fuel to the fire. Canada’s identification of Indian diplomats as persons of interest has been interpreted by India as an act of provocation, particularly given the lack of any clear evidence linking them to the Nijjar case. Trudeau’s government claims it has “credible, irrefutable evidence” of Indian involvement, yet this evidence has not been made public, nor has it been shared with the Indian government, according to New Delhi’s statements.
In response to Canada’s diplomatic moves, India summoned Stewart Wheeler, Canada’s chargé d’affaires in New Delhi, for an urgent meeting. With the High Commissioner absent, Wheeler stepped in to face a tense exchange with Indian officials. The message was clear: India is deeply concerned for the safety of its diplomats, citing an atmosphere of extremism and violence in Canada, particularly from pro-Khalistan groups.
One particularly alarming instance involved a video shared on social media by Khalistani groups showing the burning of an effigy of the Indian High Commissioner. This, combined with threats made against Indian diplomats, has raised serious security concerns in New Delhi.
Political Context: Trudeau’s Domestic Troubles
The diplomatic fallout comes at a precarious time for Justin Trudeau. His minority government has been increasingly unstable, with his political ally, Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), recently withdrawing support for the governing coalition. Singh’s party, which enjoys strong backing from the Sikh community, has been a crucial partner for Trudeau, especially as he faces declining popularity.
Recent polls suggest that if elections were held today, Trudeau’s Liberal Party would likely lose, with the Conservative Party leading the race. Trudeau’s handling of the India-Canada relationship, particularly his stance on the Khalistan issue, has been a point of contention both domestically and internationally. Critics accuse him of pandering to separatist elements to secure political gains, at the expense of Canada’s relationship with India.
The timing of Trudeau’s accusations against India has raised eyebrows, with some analysts suggesting that it may be an attempt to deflect attention from his own domestic challenges. His government is under scrutiny for mishandling issues related to foreign interference, and his strained relationship with India may be part of a broader strategy to shift the narrative.
India’s Strong Rebuttal and Warnings
India has not taken the accusations lightly. In a rare move, New Delhi’s statement directly addressed Trudeau’s political troubles, accusing him of playing politics with international relations. The MEA referenced Trudeau’s controversial 2018 visit to India—where he was criticized for dressing in traditional Indian attire and for the presence of a convicted Khalistan sympathizer at official events. It also called out his support for the 2020–2021 farmers’ protests in India, which were co-opted by some Khalistan-affiliated groups abroad.
India’s stance is clear: it will not tolerate what it sees as the Trudeau government’s pandering to extremists. The MEA’s statement also mentioned that India reserves the right to take further steps if the situation continues to deteriorate. This could include a more formal downgrading of diplomatic ties or even economic and trade consequences.
Future Implications: What Comes Next?
The diplomatic spat between India and Canada shows no signs of de-escalation. As India recalls its High Commissioner, there is speculation that Canada may respond in kind, further straining relations. Trade talks between the two countries have already been impacted, and the once-promising relationship is now overshadowed by political and ideological differences.
The international community is watching closely. Canada has long been seen as a bastion of multiculturalism and a champion of human rights, while India, as the world’s largest democracy, plays a critical role in global geopolitics. The stakes are high, and a prolonged diplomatic rift could have far-reaching consequences, not just for bilateral relations but also for the global fight against terrorism and extremism.
For now, the ball is in Canada’s court. If the Trudeau government can provide the “credible, irrefutable evidence” it claims to have, it could potentially shift the narrative. However, if the evidence fails to materialize, or if Canada continues to shield separatist elements, the diplomatic rift is likely to deepen, pushing the two countries further apart.
In the coming weeks, both nations will have to carefully navigate the fallout from this crisis. What began as a political dispute over Khalistan separatism has now transformed into a full-blown diplomatic war, with no clear end in sight.
India and Canada, once strong partners, now find themselves at a historic crossroads, with their future relationship hanging in the balance.