The first phase of polling for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 concluded today across 121 constituencies in 18 districts — and the numbers coming out of the ground are already rewriting Bihar’s political narrative. With polling crossing 64.66%, this becomes the highest voter turnout in the state’s assembly election history — surpassing the previous record of 62.57% set in 2000. In the last 25 years, Bihar has never touched this scale of polling enthusiasm.

But the most defining feature of this phase was not just the high turnout — it was the massive participation of women voters. The turnout witnessed today is not merely statistical elevation. It reflects a deep behavioural shift in Bihar’s electoral culture.

Women Voters: The Biggest Political X-Factor of Phase 1

From small Panchayat booths to urban polling centres, there were consistently long queues of women since early morning. Field reports, ground visuals and sociological patterns all reflect the same phenomenon — women voters are not just participating, they are driving this election.

Factors influencing this silent wave:

• Strong direct benefit delivery under Modi government welfare schemes
• The Jeevika mission model and empowerment of rural women
• Nitish Kumar’s long-term social reform image among women
• Rural livelihood networks becoming actual political capital

If this huge female turnout consolidates behind NDA — as voting behaviour patterns today strongly indicate — then Phase 1 may have already structurally shifted the election in NDA’s favour.

Not an Exit Poll — But Trend Indicators Are Too Strong to Ignore

The Election Commission has prohibited exit polls during voting phases, and this is not an exit poll.

This is a constituency behaviour–based analytical interpretation of turnout patterns, socio-political undercurrents, historical performance, and demographic movement during Phase 1.

How the Equation Flipped for RJD Strongholds

In the previous cycle, RJD alone had won 61 out of these 121 seats — a formidable dominance. NDA was wiped out in many of those pockets.

But today, the same pockets witnessed a reverse mood.

Based on visible trends and demographic indicators:

Party / Alliance	Trend-Based Seat Range (from Phase 1 behaviour)
BJP	40 – 45
JDU	35 – 38
NDA Total	80 – 85
Grand Alliance	35 – 40 maximum

Nitish Kumar Emerges as the Surprise Phase 1 Winner

While BJP remains the single largest seat gainer individually — the real surprise package of Phase 1 trend behaviour is Nitish Kumar’s JDU. Because the JDU had performed weaker in these same zones last time — this time the reversal is sharper.

The Rahul Gandhi Strategy Fails to Convert on Ground

Despite aggressive caste narrative attempts, OBC corporate representation claims, press conferences, targeted social messaging — none of this translated to mobilised booth power on Day 1.

Narratives do not decide elections — trust does. And the credibility gap was stark.

When credibility collapses — even narrative explosions, political “hydrogen bombs”, or high volume messaging fail to generate impact.

Turnout Context Also Adds Weight

Despite deletion of 47 lakh voter names during the Special Intensive Revision (which opposition alleged as disenfranchisement of marginalised voter segments), the voter turnout still broke all records.

Meaning — the motivation level of active participating voters was extremely high.

Phase 1 Has Already Shifted the Balance of Bihar 2025

The first phase of polling has clearly changed the tone and direction of this election. The unprecedented turnout of women voters, combined with strong welfare-based support patterns, has given the NDA a clear early momentum. BJP appears to be the biggest individual gainer, but Nitish Kumar’s JDU looks set to make the most surprising recovery in these seats. Chirag Paswan’s influence among Mahadalits and youth continues to strengthen NDA’s positioning further.

If the same energy and women-led enthusiasm continues into Phase 2 and Phase 3, Bihar 2025 could move toward a decisive, one-sided verdict even before counting day. Phase 1 has already tilted the political board — and the Grand Alliance now begins the remaining phases from a position of visible disadvantage.