In recent months, relations between India and Canada have spiraled into a full-blown diplomatic crisis. What started as an accusation by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has now turned into a standoff with far-reaching implications for global politics. India, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is asserting its global standing, while Canada appears to be struggling to manage the fallout from its internal and external policies.
This article delves into the origins of this crisis, the key issues at play, and what this means for the future of India-Canada relations, as well as the broader geopolitical landscape.
The Catalyst: The Hardeep Singh Nijjar Controversy
The current tension began with the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent Khalistani separatist leader who was shot dead in Canada in June 2023. Nijjar, labeled a terrorist by the Indian government, had been a vocal advocate for an independent Sikh state—Khalistan—in the Indian state of Punjab. Despite India’s repeated requests for his extradition due to his involvement in terrorism, Canada refused to hand him over, citing a lack of sufficient evidence.
In September 2023, Trudeau shocked the world by publicly accusing the Indian government of being involved in Nijjar’s killing. These allegations were based on what Trudeau called “credible intelligence,” but the details of this intelligence have not been disclosed, raising questions about the validity of the claim.
India has flatly denied any involvement, calling Trudeau’s accusations “baseless” and “absurd.” The Indian government has consistently maintained that Canada has been harboring Khalistani extremists and terrorists for decades, failing to take action despite repeated extradition requests.
India’s Response: A Firm Stand
India’s response has been both swift and resolute. In the wake of Prime Minister Trudeau’s allegations, India expelled a senior Canadian diplomat and called on Canada to provide substantial evidence backing its claims. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs also highlighted Canada’s inaction regarding 26 pending extradition requests, which encompass not only Khalistani terrorists but also other individuals wanted for serious offenses in India. On October 17, 2024, the Ministry emphasized that India had submitted these 26 extradition requests to Canada, along with security information regarding gangs, including the Lawrence Bishnoi gang, yet no actions have been taken thus far.
In a press conference, a spokesperson from India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated, “Canada has long been a safe haven for terrorists and extremists who threaten the unity and integrity of India. Despite our repeated requests, the Canadian government has taken no action on individuals who are a direct threat to our national security.”
India further emphasized that the murder of Nijjar is being used as a smokescreen to divert attention from Canada’s failure to act on these extradition requests. This hardline stance has resonated with the Indian public, many of whom view Trudeau’s accusations as an attempt to gain favor with a key voting bloc—Canada’s large Sikh community—in light of his declining domestic popularity.
The Deeper Issue: Canada’s Soft Stance on Extremism
The core issue behind this diplomatic fallout is Canada’s alleged tolerance of Khalistani extremism on its soil. Khalistanis have long found a sympathetic audience in Canada, which is home to a significant Sikh diaspora. However, many Sikhs in Canada are law-abiding citizens who have nothing to do with the Khalistani movement, and some have openly criticized the separatists.
India has repeatedly raised concerns about pro-Khalistan rallies, events, and fundraising activities taking place in Canada. These activities, according to India, not only pose a threat to its national security but also strain the diplomatic relationship between the two countries.
Trudeau’s political base includes a considerable number of Sikh voters, and his government has been accused of turning a blind eye to Khalistani activities in order to secure electoral support. However, by siding with extremists, Trudeau may have underestimated the long-term damage to Canada’s international reputation and its relations with India.
Canada’s Foreign Policy: A Balancing Act Gone Wrong
Canada’s foreign policy has long been shaped by its alliances with Western powers, especially the United States and its NATO allies. In recent years, Canada has also been closely aligned with left-liberal internationalism, prioritizing human rights and democratic values. However, its handling of the India situation has exposed the contradictions in its approach.
While Trudeau’s government has taken a strong stance on human rights issues globally, including criticizing India on matters like Kashmir, it has failed to address the presence of extremists within its borders. This double standard has not gone unnoticed, and India has called out Canada’s hypocrisy on the global stage.
Canada’s foreign policy is increasingly being seen as reactive rather than strategic, often shaped by domestic political considerations rather than long-term global interests. The Trudeau government’s reluctance to act against Khalistani extremists appears to be driven by electoral politics rather than a genuine commitment to counter-terrorism, undermining Canada’s credibility on the world stage.
The Modi Factor: India’s Assertive Foreign Policy
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has adopted a more assertive and independent foreign policy. Unlike previous administrations that often deferred to Western powers, Modi has made it clear that India will not be dictated to by external forces. This new stance has been visible in India’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine war, its growing ties with Middle Eastern countries, and its bold moves to diversify its economy.
Modi’s government has also made significant strides in reducing India’s reliance on Western powers for military equipment and economic partnerships. India’s strategic partnerships with Russia, its increasing self-reliance in defense production, and its pivot towards digitalization through initiatives like UPI (Unified Payments Interface) have significantly boosted India’s global standing.
“India today is a global power, and we will not be treated as a subservient player in the international arena,” Modi stated in a recent speech. This assertiveness has clearly rattled Western powers, including Canada, which seem to be struggling to adjust to the new reality of an independent India.
The Broader Geopolitical Context: Western Hegemony in Decline?
The India-Canada diplomatic standoff is not an isolated incident but part of a broader shift in global power dynamics. For decades, Western powers—led by the United States—have maintained their dominance over global politics and economics. However, this hegemony is now being challenged by rising powers like India, China, and Russia.
India’s refusal to align itself with the West’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, its growing economic ties with Russia despite sanctions, and its push for a multipolar world order reflect a larger trend of emerging powers asserting their sovereignty. Canada’s attempts to pressure India into submission over the Nijjar issue are symptomatic of a Western mindset that is increasingly out of touch with the new global order.
“The days when the West could dictate terms to the rest of the world are over,” said a geopolitical analyst. “India’s rise is part of a larger shift, and countries like Canada need to adapt to this new reality or risk being left behind.”
The Domestic Fallout for Trudeau
Domestically, the diplomatic crisis with India couldn’t have come at a worse time for Trudeau. His popularity is at an all-time low, with his approval rating plummeting to just 21%. The ongoing economic challenges, rising inflation, and his government’s handling of COVID-19 have already eroded public trust.
Now, with the India crisis, Trudeau is facing mounting pressure from both within his party and the opposition. Some members of his own party are calling for his resignation, and the opposition has seized on the issue, accusing Trudeau of mishandling Canada’s foreign relations.
Many political observers believe that Trudeau’s days as Prime Minister are numbered. If he doesn’t step down voluntarily, he could very well face a leadership challenge from within his party. Meanwhile, his diplomatic failures with India could have lasting consequences for Canada’s international standing.
What’s Next?
The road ahead for India-Canada relations remains uncertain. Both countries have much to lose if the crisis escalates further. Canada risks isolating itself on the global stage, while India—though resilient—could face increased pressure from its Western allies.
However, India has made it clear that it will not tolerate external interference in its internal matters or harboring of individuals it considers terrorists. Canada, on the other hand, will need to decide whether its domestic political considerations outweigh the importance of maintaining strong ties with one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
The India-Canada diplomatic crisis is a wake-up call for both nations—and the world at large. For India, it’s a reminder that its rise on the global stage comes with challenges, especially from countries that have yet to adapt to the new geopolitical landscape. For Canada, it’s an opportunity to reassess its foreign policy priorities and align them with its long-term national interests rather than short-term electoral gains.As this diplomatic row continues to unfold, one thing is certain: India is no longer a country that can be pushed around, and the world must learn to engage with it on equal terms.