As the 2024 Delhi Assembly elections approach, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led by Arvind Kejriwal has launched its ambitious “Mission 2025.” Kejriwal’s re-election bid is centered on mass outreach programs, aimed at re-engaging with voters across Delhi. This time, however, the political landscape appears far more complex for the AAP than in previous elections. With allegations of corruption, a shifting public mood, internal dissent, and stronger opposition from both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress, Kejriwal is facing one of the most challenging phases of his political career.
Kejriwal’s Outreach: Mission 2025
In a bid to secure a third consecutive term as Chief Minister, Kejriwal launched a series of large-scale campaigns, attempting to directly connect with the people of Delhi. His outreach, which began earlier this year, is part of AAP’s strategy to revitalize its voter base by meeting citizens face-to-face and addressing their concerns. The party is focusing on urban neighborhoods, slum clusters, and areas that have historically supported AAP, with the goal of rebuilding trust and reestablishing its once-solid grip over the capital.
The outreach campaign includes padyatras (foot marches), public rallies, and social media initiatives. Kejriwal and his team have promoted the party’s achievements in education, healthcare, and welfare schemes—policies that were once pivotal to its success.
A Shifting Political Environment
However, this election cycle is fundamentally different from those before. Public sentiment towards AAP has shifted dramatically due to a slew of corruption allegations, as well as the tag of Kejriwal being a “Tihar Jail return” (a reference to his time spent in judicial custody over corruption charges). Though Kejriwal has denied all wrongdoing, the damage to his image appears significant.
Recent protests during his public appearances underscore this change. For instance, during a padyatra in Mehrauli two days ago, Kejriwal was met with fierce opposition. People chanted slogans like “Kejriwal Hi-Hi,” displayed black flags, and voiced their dissatisfaction. Many citizens in areas such as Hauz Khas, Pitampura, Garhi Deoli, and Humayunpur have openly criticized the party’s failure to address issues such as air pollution and the deteriorating condition of the Yamuna river. Posters calling for a boycott of the elections have also appeared in multiple neighborhoods, reflecting deep-rooted anger towards the government.
Kejriwal’s Response: Leadership in Crisis?
Kejriwal’s response has been strategic, if unconventional. Atishi, a senior AAP leader, has been positioned as a central figure in Delhi’s governance. In doing so, Kejriwal aims to divert some of the negative attention away from himself and towards Atishi’s reputation as a problem solver. Nevertheless, this tactic appears to have its limits. While Kejriwal and his team have attempted to frame the opposition’s actions as politically motivated, the public seems less willing to overlook the controversies surrounding the AAP government.
A growing sense of rebellion within AAP further complicates matters. Internal sources report that several MLAs face intense anti-incumbency sentiment, which is fostering discontent within the party. There is speculation that some prominent leaders could leave the party before the elections, potentially splintering AAP’s voter base.
A Shrinking Support Base
AAP’s internal and external surveys have revealed troubling numbers for the party. Once considered unbeatable in Delhi, AAP is now predicted to secure only 20 to 25 seats—far fewer than its tally of 62 seats in the 2020 elections.
A key factor behind this decline is the erosion of Kejriwal’s credibility, which was once based on his image as an anti-corruption crusader. During AAP’s earlier years, Kejriwal was able to mobilize public opinion with promises of free services—such as electricity, water, and healthcare. However, in the current election cycle, even these populist policies appear to be losing their appeal.
Many voters have voiced frustration that the benefits of free electricity are limited to a specific segment of the population, mostly in slum clusters, while others claim they are paying high electricity rates. Criticism of Kejriwal’s education reforms, which were once hailed internationally, has also mounted. Despite the praise in publications like The New York Times and The Washington Post, reports have surfaced that schools are overcrowded, resources are insufficient, and students are being taught in poorly maintained classrooms.
Rising Opposition from BJP and Congress
Meanwhile, both the BJP and Congress have ramped up their electoral campaigns. BJP, which controls the central government, has leveraged its resources to target AAP’s weaknesses. It has particularly focused on criticizing the deteriorating condition of Delhi’s infrastructure, including waterlogging, poor sanitation, and the city’s increasing air pollution levels.
BJP leaders have pointed out that AAP can no longer blame the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) for these issues since AAP now controls the MCD as well. The BJP’s campaign messaging stresses that AAP’s excuses for poor governance have run dry.
Congress, on the other hand, has also been more assertive in its approach. Having been significantly weakened in Delhi for the past decade, the party is attempting to stage a comeback by focusing on issues that resonate with the urban middle class. Congress leaders have criticized AAP’s handling of governance and accused Kejriwal of adopting a populist approach that focuses more on optics than substance.
In addition, reports suggest that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will contest all 70 seats in Delhi, further fragmenting the vote, especially in slum areas where AAP once had a significant advantage.
The Catch-22: To Change or Not to Change?
Kejriwal also faces a tricky dilemma when it comes to ticket distribution. With anti-incumbency sentiments rising against AAP MLAs, Kejriwal must decide whether to replace some of them or stick with the current roster. Replacing them could lead to rebellion within the party, with outgoing MLAs potentially campaigning against AAP. Keeping the same candidates, on the other hand, risks alienating voters who are already frustrated with the government’s performance.
This Catch-22 situation could severely impact AAP’s electoral fortunes, especially if key rebel leaders choose to join the BJP or Congress.
The Road Ahead: A Fight for Survival
The stakes for Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party could not be higher. As Delhi’s elections loom large, it is clear that the road ahead will be extremely difficult for the party. AAP, which once won elections on the strength of its promise of clean governance and free services, now faces the daunting task of convincing voters that it still deserves their trust.
The BJP is better prepared this time, Congress is reviving, and the public is growing increasingly disillusioned with Kejriwal’s leadership. With allegations of corruption, internal dissent, and discontent among voters, Kejriwal is in a precarious position.
The 2024 Delhi elections could be a defining moment for AAP and its leader, potentially either solidifying or undermining their influence over the city’s political future.