As India celebrates Dhanteras on 18 Oct 2025, the festival of prosperity and gold, the yellow metal is glittering brighter than ever — but with a price tag never seen before.

Gold has crossed a historic ₹1,30,000 per 10 grams in the Indian futures market, mirroring a global surge to over $4,100 per ounce. Prices have jumped nearly 50% in 2025, driven by global instability, trade tensions, and a falling U.S. dollar.

Even as prices soar, India’s love affair with gold shows no signs of cooling.

1. The Scale of the Surge

Metric	Jan 2025	Oct 2025	Change
Global Gold Price	$2,730/oz	$4,107/oz	+51%
Indian Gold Futures	₹86,000/10g	₹1,30,000/10g	+48%
Investor Return	₹1 lakh → ₹1.5 lakh	—	+50%

Gold has outperformed stocks, mutual funds, and even real estate this year — reaffirming its safe-haven appeal.

2. Central Banks Are Driving the Rally

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global central banks have bought an average of 64 tonnes of gold every month in 2025, the highest in over a decade.

Country	Gold Purchases (2025)	Current Reserves (tonnes)
China	+280	2,265
Turkey	+97	540
Kazakhstan	+54	410
Bulgaria	+23	140
India (RBI)	+71	888

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) alone has added ₹1.6 lakh crore (≈$19 billion) worth of gold to its reserves this year — while cutting its exposure to U.S. Treasury bonds.
This move signals a strategic shift away from dependence on the U.S. dollar.

RBI Holdings	2024	June 2025
U.S. Treasuries	$242 billion	<$230 billion
Gold Reserves (Value)	$47 billion	$66 billion

3. Why Gold Is Booming Again

Gold’s rise this year is not just about festival sentiment — it reflects global economic anxiety.

Key drivers include:

Geopolitical flashpoints: Ukraine war, Middle East conflict, and China–Taiwan tensions.

Trade wars: Renewed U.S.–China tariff battles.

Banking stress: Failures of U.S. regional banks and European lenders.

Weak U.S. dollar: The Dollar Index has fallen 6% since July 2025.

Persistent inflation: U.S. inflation stuck at 3.4%, making gold a strong inflation hedge.

4. What Experts Forecast Next

Institution	2025 Forecast	2026 Forecast	Outlook
HSBC	₹1,34,000/10g	₹1,39,000/10g	Bullish — Safe-haven demand to stay high
ANZ Bank	₹1,31,000/10g	₹1,44,000/10g (mid-2026 peak)	Moderate — Correction likely next year
Goldman Sachs	₹1,35,000/10g	₹1,41,000/10g	Strong — Central bank and retail buying

Analyst takeaway:
If global tensions persist, gold could climb another ₹10,000–₹15,000 per 10g by mid-2026.
But a return to stability could trigger a correction toward ₹1.10–₹1.15 lakh per 10g by next Diwali.

5. Dhanteras and India’s Enduring Love for Gold

Despite record prices, festive gold demand remains robust. The WGC estimates that festive season purchases will rise 5–8% year-on-year, driven by both tradition and inflation fears.

However, buying habits are changing:

Younger Indians are opting for digital gold, Gold ETFs, and Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs).

Jewelry demand remains steady but more selective — with buyers preferring lighter designs and hallmark-certified pieces.

“India’s relationship with gold is emotional, but its form is evolving — from ornaments to investments,” notes the WGC.

6. Should You Buy Gold Now?

Here’s how experts suggest approaching gold in October 2025:

Time Horizon	Strategy
Short Term (1–3 months)	Avoid bulk buying. Prices may cool slightly after Diwali if tensions ease.
Medium Term (6–12 months)	Accumulate gradually via Gold ETFs or SGB SIPs.
Long Term (3+ years)	Keep 10–15% of your portfolio in gold for diversification and inflation protection.

Investment Option Comparison

Instrument	Liquidity	Return Type	Tax Advantage
Physical Gold	High	Direct	None
Gold ETFs	Very High	Market-linked	20% LTCG with indexation
Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs)	Moderate	2.5% annual interest + price gain	Tax-free on maturity

Gold’s record-breaking run tells a deeper story — of a world hedging against instability and shifting financial power.
For Indian investors, gold is no longer just a ritual purchase — it’s a form of insurance against uncertainty.

As you buy gold this Dhanteras 2025, remember:
Small, smart, and steady investments — not emotional splurges — will keep your portfolio shining.

“Gold may glitter every year, but timing decides who truly prospers.”