Digital Team
From Assam to West Bengal and Mumbai, census trends, migration patterns and political claims reignite debate over demographic change and internal security.
Concerns over demographic change in India have resurfaced after political leaders and researchers cited census data and migration patterns in states such as Assam, West Bengal and Maharashtra, raising questions about population shifts, cross-border movement and electoral integrity. The debate, which officials stress is not religious but administrative, focuses on whether recent population growth trends reflect natural demographic change or irregular migration.
Demographic Change in India: What the Data Shows
Demographic change in India is a long-term and natural process shaped by fertility, mortality, migration and urbanisation. However, sharp variations across regions have drawn renewed scrutiny from policymakers and sociologists.
Census data over the past century indicates significant shifts in religious composition in select states and metropolitan regions, particularly in border and urban districts. Political leaders argue these changes require closer examination through administrative and electoral mechanisms.
Officials emphasise that the discussion must be anchored in data, legality and governance, not religious identity.
Mumbai’s Population Trends Since Independence
Mumbai, India’s financial capital, illustrates the complexity of urban demographic shifts.
According to Census of India figures:
- In 1961, Hindus constituted approximately 88% of Mumbai’s population.
- By 2011, this figure declined to around 66%.
- The Muslim population increased from about 8% in 1961 to 21% in 2011.
Some academic projections, including estimates referenced in studies linked to the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS), suggest the Muslim population share in Mumbai could rise further in coming decades due to migration and urban settlement patterns.
Urban experts note that large cities naturally attract internal migrants for employment, housing and informal-sector opportunities, complicating simplistic interpretations of demographic data.
India’s Muslim Population
Source of data: https://data-player.com/mapped-what-is-muslim-population-in-india-by-its-state-census-2011/
Assam: Migration, Borders and Demographic Anxiety
Assam remains at the centre of India’s demographic debate due to its porous international border with Bangladesh.
Historical census data shows:
- Muslim population in 1901: approximately 14–15%
- 1951: increased to 24.68%
- 2011: rose to 34.22%
Recent estimates cited by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma suggest the figure may now exceed 40%, particularly in districts of Lower and Western Assam.
Data source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/assam-to-become-muslim-majority-state-by-2041-cm-himanta-predicts-demographic-shift/articleshow/111874515.cms
The state government attributes these changes largely to illegal migration, rather than fertility rates. Assam has long implemented special legal and administrative measures, including:
- National Register of Citizens (NRC)
- Foreigners Tribunals
- Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls
Officials argue these mechanisms are aimed at citizenship verification, not community targeting.
West Bengal: Steady Growth and Regional Clusters
West Bengal presents a different demographic trajectory, marked by gradual but consistent change.
Census figures indicate:
- 1951: Muslim population at 19.46%
- 1971: 20.46%
- 1991: 23.61%
- 2011: approximately 27%
Unofficial estimates suggest the Muslim population may now exceed 30%, with certain districts in South Bengal reportedly crossing 40%.
State officials and analysts attribute these patterns to a combination of:
- Cross-border migration
- Internal movement within India
- Higher population concentration in specific districts
The state government maintains that demographic diversity reflects Bengal’s historical openness, while opposition parties have demanded stricter border enforcement.
Fertility Rates and the ‘Inorganic Growth’ Argument
A key argument raised by political leaders is the mismatch between fertility trends and population growth.
Data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) shows:
- Muslim fertility rate declined from 4.4 (1992–93) to 2.3 (2019–21).
- This decline is among the sharpest across religious communities.
Demographers note that declining fertility should normally slow population growth. When growth continues disproportionately, analysts examine other factors such as migration, settlement patterns and documentation gaps.
However, sociologists caution that:
- Urban migration can distort district-level population shares.
- Census intervals of 10 years limit real-time accuracy.
- Informal settlements often remain undercounted or misclassified.
Election Commission Measures and Political Response
The debate has intensified around the Election Commission of India’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in border and urban districts.
Supporters argue SIR ensures:
- Electoral integrity
- Removal of duplicate or ineligible voters
- Compliance with citizenship laws
Critics, including opposition parties and civil society groups, warn against potential disenfranchisement and call for transparency and safeguards.
The Election Commission has reiterated that SIR is routine administrative practice, not a targeted exercise.
National Security vs Social Cohesion
Senior officials stress that demographic change should be viewed through the lens of national security, governance and law enforcement, not communal identity.
India shares borders with countries experiencing political instability and economic stress, including Bangladesh, Myanmar and Afghanistan. Migration experts acknowledge that border regions face unique pressures.
At the same time, constitutional experts emphasise that:
- Citizenship rights must be protected
- Due process must guide verification exercises
- Social cohesion remains critical in diverse societies
Why the Demographic Change Debate Matters
Demographic change in India is a complex reality shaped by history, economics and migration. While census data and official estimates highlight significant regional shifts, experts urge evidence-based policy responses rather than political polarisation.
As India prepares for future censuses and electoral updates, the challenge lies in balancing border security, legal compliance and social harmony. Policymakers across parties agree on one point: demographic change affects governance, infrastructure and stability—and demands informed, transparent debate.
FAQs
Q: What is demographic change in India?
A: It refers to shifts in population composition due to fertility, mortality, migration and urbanisation.
Q: Is population change linked only to religion?
A: No. Experts say migration, economic factors and urban growth play major roles.
Q: Why is Assam central to the debate?
A: Assam shares an international border and has seen significant population shifts over decades.
Q: What is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR)?
A: A voter roll verification exercise conducted by the Election Commission.
Q: Has Muslim fertility declined in India?
A: Yes. NFHS data shows a sharp decline over the last two decades. Muslim fertility rate declined from 4.4 (1992–93) to 2.3 (2019–21).
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