The Delhi Assembly elections, scheduled for February 5, 2025, are set to be one of the most closely watched political events in India. With 70 seats up for grabs and 699 candidates in the fray, the election is a direct contest between the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with the Congress playing a relatively minor role. As the capital prepares to vote, all parties are busy analyzing their prospects based on internal surveys, ground reports, and voter sentiment.
The Political Landscape
Delhi has been under AAP’s governance since 2015, with Arvind Kejriwal leading the party to two consecutive victories. However, the BJP, which has not formed a government in Delhi since 1998, is leaving no stone unturned to reclaim power. The Congress, once a dominant force in the capital, is struggling to regain relevance.
This election is particularly significant as it comes amid allegations of corruption against AAP, including a high-profile liquor scam, and the BJP’s aggressive campaign centered on national security, governance, and development. The outcome will not only determine Delhi’s political future but also set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Key Players and Their Strategies
1. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)
Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is banking on its welfare schemes, such as free electricity, water, education, and healthcare, which have been popular among Delhi’s voters. Kejriwal has confidently claimed that AAP will win 55 seats, with the potential to reach 60 if women voters turn out in larger numbers.
However, internal surveys conducted by Prashant Kishor’s I-PAC team suggest a more cautious outlook. According to these reports, AAP is confident of winning 30 seats, with 12 others in a borderline category. The party’s campaign has focused on defending its governance record while countering allegations of corruption.
2. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
The BJP, led by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, has conducted extensive surveys and feedback sessions with its ground workers. Initial claims of winning 55 seats were revised to 48 after stricter scrutiny, and finally to 42 seats where the party expects a comfortable margin of over 5,100 votes.
The BJP’s campaign has heavily relied on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, emphasizing national security, infrastructure development, and the fight against corruption. The party has also targeted AAP over the liquor scam and questioned the sustainability of its freebie-based governance model.
3. Congress
The Congress party, which ruled Delhi for 15 years before being sidelined by AAP and the BJP, is struggling to make a comeback. Its internal survey predicts a modest performance, with 8 to 10 seats. However, the party’s overall assessment suggests that the BJP is likely to form the government, potentially winning around 45 seats.
Voter Turnout: The Deciding Factor
Voter turnout is expected to play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the elections. Analysts suggest that:
If the voting percentage exceeds 60%: It could spell trouble for AAP, as higher turnout often indicates a strong anti-incumbency wave. In such a scenario, AAP’s seat count could drop significantly, with some projections suggesting as low as 10 seats if turnout reaches 65%.
If the voting percentage is below 60%: It could favor AAP, as lower turnout might indicate a lack of enthusiasm among BJP supporters.
The BJP’s campaign has focused on mobilizing its core voter base, while AAP is relying on its welfare schemes to attract voters, particularly women and the economically disadvantaged.
Allegations and Controversies
The 2025 Delhi elections have been marred by allegations and controversies:
AAP’s Liquor Scam: The BJP has aggressively targeted AAP over allegations of corruption in the Delhi liquor policy, which has tarnished the party’s image.
BJP’s Governance Model: AAP has countered by questioning the BJP’s governance model, accusing it of neglecting Delhi’s development and focusing solely on national issues.
Congress’s Struggle: The Congress party, meanwhile, is grappling with internal divisions and a lack of strong leadership, making it difficult to mount a credible challenge.
Security and Election Preparations
To ensure a smooth and fair election process, over 42,000 security personnel have been deployed across Delhi. Strict measures are in place to prevent the distribution of money and liquor, which often peak on the eve of elections. The Election Commission has also implemented stringent monitoring mechanisms to curb malpractices.
What to Expect on Election Day
As Delhi heads to the polls, all eyes will be on voter turnout and the final results, which will be declared on February 8. The election is shaping up to be a bipolar contest between AAP and the BJP, with the Congress playing a minor role.
For AAP: The challenge is to defend its governance record and counter allegations of corruption while retaining its core voter base.
For BJP: The goal is to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment and leverage PM Modi’s popularity to reclaim power in Delhi after 27 years.
For Congress: The focus is on regaining lost ground and positioning itself as a viable alternative to AAP and the BJP.
Whats ahead
The 2025 Delhi Assembly elections are a high-stakes battle that will shape the capital’s political future. With AAP defending its decade-long dominance and the BJP aiming for a comeback, the contest is expected to be fierce and closely fought. As voters head to the polls tomorrow, the outcome will depend on a combination of voter turnout, campaign strategies, and the ability of parties to address key issues affecting Delhi’s residents. The results, to be announced on February 8, will reveal whether AAP retains its stronghold or the BJP succeeds in scripting a historic comeback.
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