US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has cautioned that Washington may impose even higher secondary tariffs on India if upcoming talks between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday fail to produce positive results.
The warning comes just a week after the Trump administration announced tariffs totalling 50% on Indian imports, including a 25% levy on crude oil purchases from Russia—set to take effect on August 27. This move has already drawn strong reactions in India and internationally, with critics calling it a geopolitical gamble that risks isolating the US further.
Trump’s Latest Threat and the Alaska Summit
President Trump has reiterated that if the war in Ukraine does not end soon, India will face consequences. The Alaska meeting on August 15 between Trump and Putin is expected to focus on Ukraine, NATO’s expansion, and global energy trade.
However, tensions have risen even before the summit begins. Bessent’s statement effectively places India on notice, making any future tariff decisions contingent on the outcome of the Trump–Putin discussions.
At the same time, Washington is increasingly wary of the growing cohesion within BRICS—the economic bloc comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Under the leadership of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, BRICS leaders are holding a high-level virtual meeting today, signalling a united front on economic and geopolitical issues.
Rising Friction Between Washington and New Delhi
Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has criticised Trump’s approach, accusing him of unnecessarily targeting India. Analysts believe the tension stems from India’s steadfast refusal to bow to US pressure to reduce strategic and energy ties with Russia.
Over the past weeks:
Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval have both visited Moscow.
Beijing’s top diplomat is scheduled to visit New Delhi, signalling warming India–China relations despite recent tensions.
India is preparing for further engagements with Russia and China during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.
These moves have frustrated Washington’s strategic calculus, which sought to align India more closely against China while isolating Russia. Instead, New Delhi appears to be deepening ties with both.
Why Trump Is on Edge
Sources suggest Trump is concerned that:
BRICS Unity: The bloc’s upcoming meetings, including a planned summit in India, may accelerate moves away from the US dollar in trade settlements—particularly if India pushes UPI (Unified Payments Interface) integration internationally.
Defiance on Russia: India continues importing Russian oil despite US sanctions, undermining Washington’s energy leverage.
Independent Diplomacy: India’s parallel outreach to both China and Russia dilutes US influence in Asia.
Global Sentiment: Social media campaigns like #BoycottAmerica are gaining traction not only in India but also across Europe, Africa, and Latin America.
The cumulative effect is that US economic threats appear less effective. The selective nature of Trump’s tariffs—exempting US-critical imports like Indian-made iPhones, generic medicines, and software—has further limited Washington’s leverage.
The Broader Geopolitical Landscape
In Europe, there is growing disillusionment with the US stance. NATO membership for Ukraine remains a sticking point in negotiations; Russia insists Ukraine must stay out of NATO, while Kyiv sees membership as its only reliable security guarantee. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s engagements with Western leaders, including the UK Prime Minister, have so far failed to bridge this gap.
For India, the evolving crisis is an opportunity to strengthen its image as an independent power broker. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has refrained from directly naming Trump in public remarks, relying instead on quiet but decisive diplomacy. Analysts note that this approach has effectively placed Trump in a strategic bind—what some describe as a “Chakravyuh” from which Washington finds it difficult to exit without losing face.
What Happens Next
The outcome of Friday’s Trump–Putin meeting will likely determine whether the US escalates its tariff measures against India. A breakdown in talks could push tariffs beyond the current 50%, further straining economic relations.
However, given the current trajectory—India’s strengthening of ties with Russia, outreach to China, active participation in BRICS, and growing global support for a multipolar order—many believe that even heightened tariffs may fail to alter New Delhi’s strategic course.
As one senior Indian diplomat put it privately:
“The US can raise tariffs, but they cannot dictate our foreign policy. We will decide our partners based on India’s interests, not America’s discomfort.”
The next 48 hours could prove pivotal—not just for US–India relations, but for the global balance of power.
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