Time has come full circle in Delhi politics. Twelve years ago, in 2013, the Congress government led by Sheila Dikshit, after ruling the national capital for 15 years, was ousted by a rising anti-incumbency wave. Accused of corruption and administrative complacency, the Congress lost its grip on Delhi. Yet, even today, many acknowledge that Dikshit’s tenure laid the foundation for Delhi’s development, transforming it into a modern metropolis.
Back then, Arvind Kejriwal emerged as a crusader against corruption, leading a movement that promised to dismantle traditional politics. He vowed to forgo political luxuries—no lavish bungalows, no security, and no VIP culture—just governance centered around the people. His party, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), was built on these principles, and Delhi voters placed their trust in him. The 2013 elections marked the end of Dikshit’s rule and the dawn of what many believed to be a political revolution.
Fast forward to today, and Kejriwal finds himself in a similar position. Once a disruptor, he is now the establishment. As Delhi heads into another electoral battle, the question arises: Has Kejriwal’s revolution remained unfinished? Could he meet the same fate as Dikshit?
The Political Landscape and Exit Polls
The latest exit polls suggest a significant shift in voter sentiment. Eight major surveys predict a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with seat projections ranging between 45 and 55 out of 70, leaving AAP with only 15 to 25 seats. The Congress, once a dominant force, is expected to secure none or at most one seat.
The BJP’s estimated vote share stands at around 48%, reflecting a 10% increase, while AAP’s support appears to have declined to approximately 42-43%. If these numbers hold true, the BJP could witness an unprecedented leap from its previous tally of eight seats to more then 50.
However, it is important to remember that exit polls have been wrong before. In recent elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and even the Lok Sabha polls, they failed to accurately predict the final outcomes. Therefore, the true picture will only emerge on result day.
The Transformation of Kejriwal’s Politics
Kejriwal’s initial electoral successes were not built on populist giveaways. In 2013 and 2015, he won because he symbolized change and promised a corruption-free government. His appeal lay in his ability to connect with the common man, positioning himself as an alternative to the entrenched political elite.
However, by the 2020 elections, AAP’s strategy had shifted towards a welfare-driven model. The party offered free electricity, water, and bus rides for women, which resonated with voters and ensured another sweeping victory. But the political landscape has since changed.
Delhi voters now seem to desire both welfare schemes and tangible development. If the BJP secures a win, it would indicate that while people still appreciate government benefits, they now trust Prime Minister Narendra Modi more than Kejriwal to deliver them.
The Challenges Ahead for AAP
Even if AAP manages to retain power, it faces mounting legal and political challenges. The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has formally named AAP and its senior leaders, including Kejriwal and former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia, in the excise policy case. If the allegations are proven in court, AAP risks losing its recognition as a political party, and its MLAs could face disqualification.
Thus, the upcoming election is not just another contest between AAP and BJP—it is a referendum on Kejriwal’s leadership. If he wins, he will make history by securing a fourth term, a feat unmatched in Delhi politics. If he loses, it will mark BJP’s return to power in Delhi after a 27-year gap.
Meanwhile, the Congress party faces the risk of further irrelevance. If it fails to secure even a single seat, it would be its third consecutive electoral washout in Delhi, reinforcing its decline in the state’s politics.
The Big Question: Is It Kejriwal vs. Kejriwal?
This election is more than a political battle—it is about Kejriwal’s credibility. The man who once promised a revolution must now convince voters that he still represents change. Over the years, Kejriwal has evolved from an anti-corruption crusader to a pragmatic politician. While his welfare schemes have won him support, critics argue that he has strayed from his original ideals.
The BJP, on the other hand, has capitalized on Kejriwal’s perceived compromises. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and the BJP’s nationalistic narrative have resonated with a significant section of Delhi’s voters. The party has also highlighted AAP’s alleged involvement in corruption cases, further denting Kejriwal’s image.
The Sheila Dikshit Parallel
Sheila Dikshit’s downfall in 2013 was attributed to a combination of anti-incumbency, corruption allegations, and a lack of fresh ideas. Despite her contributions to Delhi’s development, voters felt it was time for a change. Kejriwal, then a political novice, capitalized on this sentiment.
Today, Kejriwal faces a similar challenge. While his government has delivered on several fronts, including education and healthcare, the electorate’s expectations have evolved. Voters are no longer satisfied with just welfare schemes; they want holistic development and effective governance.
Moreover, the BJP’s aggressive campaign, coupled with its organizational strength, has put AAP on the defensive. Kejriwal’s ability to counter these challenges will determine whether he can avoid Dikshit’s fate.
The Road Ahead
The results of the Delhi Assembly elections will have far-reaching implications for both AAP and BJP. For Kejriwal, a victory would cement his position as a key player in national politics, while a defeat could signal the end of his political dominance in Delhi. A political analyst predicts that soon AAP will loose power at Punjab as well.
For the BJP, a win would mark its resurgence in the capital and strengthen its position ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It would also validate the party’s strategy of focusing on local issues and leveraging Modi’s popularity.
As for the Congress, its continued decline in Delhi underscores the party’s inability to reinvent itself. Unless it addresses its organizational weaknesses and reconnects with voters, it risks becoming irrelevant in the state’s politics.
Conclusion
The Delhi Assembly elections are a litmus test for Arvind Kejriwal and his party. The man who once promised a revolution must now prove that he can sustain it. The results will answer a crucial question: Does Delhi still believe in Kejriwal, or has his revolution faded into history?
As the counting day approaches (8th Feb 2025), all eyes are on Delhi. Will Kejriwal script history with a fourth consecutive victory, or will he follow in Sheila Dikshit’s footsteps? Only time will tell.
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