The Indian Lok Sabha elections are over, and the exit polls that predicted the results have been made public. It looks like the Modi government will be making the government for the third time in a row. Prior to the elections, Prime Minister Modi meditated at the Vivekananda Shila Memorial near Kanyakumari. The exit poll results seem to align with the expectations set before the elections. The exit polls indicate that the NDA is likely to secure over 360 seats. Some polls even say they will get 400+ seats.
Comparative analysis of Exit Poll across agencies
State wise analysis of Exit poll 2024 with Lok Sabha 2019 Result
The News18 Mega Exit Poll 2024 indicates that Significant gains are expected in states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Odisha. In West Bengal, where the BJP has been slowly gaining ground, the party is expected to do even better, with a chance of getting 21 to 24 seats. The BJP is expecting to make big gains in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, all of which have been difficult for the party in the past. They hope to win 4-6 seats in Andhra Pradesh, 1-3 seats in Tamil Nadu as part of the AIADMK+ alliance, and 1-3 seats in Kerala.
In the meantime, Haryana and Rajasthan are expected to lose a lot of money. In Haryana, the NDA is expected to win 5–7 seats, which is less than the BJP’s previous 10-seat gain in 2019. This could mean that the BJP loses some of its power in the state. And in Rajasthan, the BJP is expected to lose 18 to 23 seats, which is less than the 24 seats it won in 2019, which means the party could lose support in the state.
Telangana: Substantial Gains
Total seats: 17
In Telangana, the BJP is projected to win 7-10 seats with a 37% vote share, a significant improvement from the 4 seats and 19.45% vote share it achieved in 2019.
Karnataka: Retaining Dominance
Total seats: 28
In Karnataka, the BJP is projected to win 21-24 seats, slightly fewer than the 25 seats it won in 2019. Despite a minor decline, the BJP continues to maintain a dominant position in the state. The NDA is expected to secure 23-26 seats.
Tamil Nadu: Gaining Foothold
Total seats: 39
The BJP is projected to win 1-3 seats in Tamil Nadu as part of the AIADMK+ alliance, which is expected to secure a 17% vote share. This is a significant improvement from the 0 seats and 3.66% vote share in 2019, indicating that the BJP’s alliance strategy is beginning to bear fruit in the Dravidian heartland.
Andhra Pradesh: Emergent Force
Total seats: 25
The BJP is expected to secure 4-6 seats in Andhra Pradesh, a state where it won no seats and had a meager 0.96% vote share in 2019. The NDA, including BJP, is projected to win 19-22 seats with a 61% vote share, indicating a substantial political shift in the state, largely benefitting from the decline of regional party YSRCP.
Kerala: Making Inroads
Total seats: 20
In Kerala, the BJP is expected to win 1-3 seats with a 16% vote share, compared to no seats and a 12.93% vote share in 2019. This suggests that the BJP is making inroads in a state traditionally dominated by the Left and the Congress.
Odisha: Significant Gains
Total seats: 21
The BJP is expected to win 13-15 seats in Odisha with a 40% vote share, compared to 8 seats and a 38.37% vote share in 2019. This represents a significant gain, reflecting increased support for the BJP in the state.
West Bengal: Strengthening Position
Total seats: 42
The BJP is projected to win 21-24 seats in West Bengal with a 43% vote share, up from 18 seats and a 40.25% vote share in 2019. This indicates a strengthening of the BJP’s position in a state where it has been rapidly expanding its influence.
Assam: Strengthening Grip
Total seats: 14
In Assam, the NDA is projected to win 10-13 seats, up from the 9 seats the BJP won in 2019. This indicates a strengthening grip for the BJP and its allies in the northeastern state.
Punjab: Modest Gains
Total seats: 13
In Punjab, the BJP is projected to win 2-4 seats, slightly improving from the 2 seats it won in 2019. This indicates a modest gain for the party in the state.
Uttar Pradesh: Continued Stronghold
Total seats: 80
In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is projected to win 64-67 seats, with the NDA securing 68-71 seats, up from 62 seats in 2019. This reinforces the BJP’s stronghold in India’s most populous state.
Chhattisgarh: Consistent Performance
Total seats: 11
The BJP is expected to win 9-11 seats in Chhattisgarh, maintaining its 2019 performance where it won 9 seats. This reflects consistent support for the BJP in the state.
Madhya Pradesh: Stable Presence
Total seats: 29
The BJP is projected to win 26-29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, compared to 28 seats in 2019. This suggests a stable presence for the BJP in the state.
Delhi: Strong Retention
Total seats: 7
The BJP is expected to win 5-7 seats in Delhi, compared to the 7 seats it won in 2019. This suggests a strong retention of its position in the national capital.
Gujarat: Strong Hold
Total seats: 26
The BJP is expected to win all 26 seats in Gujarat, replicating its 2019 performance. This indicates a strong hold for the BJP in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state.
Haryana: Potential Setbacks
Total seats: 10
In Haryana, the NDA is projected to win 5-7 seats, a decrease from the 10 seats the BJP won in 2019. This suggests potential setbacks for the BJP in a state where it previously dominated.
Rajasthan: Potential Losses
Total seats: 25
In Rajasthan, the BJP is expected to win 18-23 seats, a decrease from the 24 seats it won in 2019. This indicates potential losses for the BJP in the state.
Bihar: Modest Decline
Total seats: 40
The BJP is expected to win 13-16 seats in Bihar, with the NDA securing 31-34 seats. This is a slight decline from the 17 seats the BJP won in 2019, though the NDA’s overall performance remains strong.
Jharkhand: Modest Decline
Total seats: 14
The NDA is projected to win 9-12 seats in Jharkhand, compared to the 11 seats the BJP won in 2019. This indicates a modest decline for the BJP in the state.
Maharashtra: Potential Decline
Total seats: 48
The BJP is projected to win 20-23 seats in Maharashtra, with the NDA securing 32-35 seats, compared to the 23 seats the BJP won in 2019. This suggests a potential decline for the BJP, though the NDA remains strong.
The opposition’s campaign was built on accusations, freebies, caste, and religion. Modi’s BJP campaign, on the other hand, was about taking India to the next level of growth and getting rid of corruption. From the exit polls, we can tell that the people of India have chosen to support PM Modi. Exit polls, on the other hand, are just guesses; the official results will be released on June 4. It will be Interesting to see whether PM Modi manages to make a historic win in 2024.