The Delhi Assembly elections of 2025 have set the stage for a heated political contest. The central question on everyone’s mind is whether the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will manage to secure a fourth consecutive term or if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been waiting for 27 years to regain control of Delhi, will finally claim victory. Recent surveys and political developments have added fuel to this suspense, hinting at a tightly contested battle that could reshape the political landscape of the national capital.
Key Dates and Context
Polling for the Delhi Assembly elections is scheduled to take place on February 5, 2025, and the results will be declared on February 8. This election is crucial for all major parties, especially the BJP, which is eager to overturn AAP’s dominance and establish its governance in the national capital after decades in the opposition.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity nationwide remains a significant advantage for the BJP. However, in Delhi, the party has historically struggled to make significant inroads despite Modi’s sweeping influence elsewhere. On the other hand, the AAP, led by Arvind Kejriwal, faces mounting challenges, including accusations of corruption and growing public discontent over unmet promises.
Survey Findings and Early Predictions
The first round of surveys has provided a mixed picture, raising concerns for AAP while offering hope for the BJP. The BJP’s efforts to connect with voters through extensive ground-level campaigns, supported by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), appear to be paying dividends. Meanwhile, Congress, which has seen a resurgence in recent months, is also working to reclaim its position in Delhi’s politics.
Analysts suggest that BJP’s prospects have improved due to dissatisfaction with AAP’s governance on several fronts. AAP’s key voter base—including lower-income groups, Dalits, and Muslims—is showing signs of wavering, while the middle-class electorate, which once strongly supported AAP, appears to be drifting toward the BJP.
AAP’s Uphill Battle
For AAP, the road to securing a majority is fraught with challenges. Surveys indicate that AAP needs to pull significant voter swings in its favor to achieve the 36-seat majority mark. Key demographic groups such as the upper castes and OBC voters, who largely lean towards BJP, will be crucial. Additionally, while AAP enjoys substantial support among Dalits and Muslims, these groups alone may not suffice to secure victory.
The party is also facing criticism over its inability to deliver on promises like reducing pollution, improving infrastructure, and tackling corruption. Scandals such as alleged financial irregularities, controversies surrounding the construction of a luxurious “Sheesh Mahal,” and the liquor policy debacle have dented AAP’s image. Kejriwal’s arrest of key allies like Manish Sisodia has further complicated the situation, as the party’s sympathy card seems to be losing its effectiveness.
BJP’s Stronger Position
The BJP enters this election with a renewed strategy, leveraging its network and focusing on issues that resonate with Delhi voters. From outreach programs targeting Purvanchali voters to promises of better governance, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned. Prime Minister Modi’s popularity and the party’s success in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections add weight to its campaign.
While BJP has historically struggled to capture the imagination of Delhi voters, the party’s efforts to expose AAP’s shortcomings and engage with key demographics could translate into electoral gains. Surveys predict that the BJP could secure between 45 and 50 seats, marking a significant victory if achieved.
Congress: A Resurgent Force?
The Congress party, once a dominant player in Delhi politics, has shown signs of revival in recent months. Under its new leadership, the party has focused on reconnecting with its core voter base, which includes the economically weaker sections and minority communities. While its chances of winning the election outright remain slim, Congress could play a kingmaker role if no party secures a clear majority.
The Electoral Landscape: What the Numbers Say
To understand the dynamics of this election, it is essential to analyze voter trends:
Upper Castes: A majority lean towards BJP, making it difficult for AAP to swing this group.
OBC Voters: Predominantly Purvanchali, this group is crucial for both BJP and AAP.
Dalits and Muslims: Historically AAP’s stronghold, but their numbers alone may not be enough.
Middle Class and Youth: AAP’s declining popularity among these groups is a significant concern.
Recent surveys indicate the following projections:
BJP: Expected to secure 47-48% of the vote share or more, translating to 45-50 seats.
AAP: Likely to get 40-42% of the vote share or less, leading to 15-20 seats.
Congress: Projected to win 3-5 seats with around 7% of the vote share.
A Decisive Mandate Awaits
The Delhi Assembly elections of 2025 promise to be a turning point in the city’s political journey. As voters prepare to cast their ballots on February 5, all eyes are on the Election Commission’s announcement of results on February 8. Will AAP overcome its challenges and secure another term, or will BJP’s strategic efforts finally bear fruit? Can Congress regain relevance and disrupt the two-party dominance? The answers lie with the people of Delhi, whose mandate will decide the future of governance in the capital for the next five years.